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Santa Anita Derby Day - Mandatory Rainbow Pick 6 Payout

Matt Matuska

Santa Anita Rainbow Pick 6 - Santa Anita Derby Day
Saturday April 3rd, 2021

 

Mandatory payout today, total estimated pool $5.5-$6 million

Race 7: Hard to look past Rip City who earned a new career top figure while threatening Whisper Not in a strong allowance race in the last time mandatory Pick 6 payout day with the Santa Anita Handicap. So 7 is a must use and was considered for a single to just start it off. Originally we added the 8 Coast of Roan and the 4 Motown Music on our first version of a ticket because of his huge late pace figures but since Motown has only never raced on turf yet and isn't really bred for it we ended up trimming it down to just #7 and 8 to make room for a couple other horses in other spots today.
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Race 8: Without Life Is Good the Santa Anita Derby lacks firepower this year.  Baffert still has his "other" horse Medina Spirit ready for this one and is an obvious "must use" but the absence of the big Baffert has left the door open for others.  Dream Shake is probably our top pick for this one as he is all set to improve in his 3rd lifetime start and ran well behind Life Is Good and Medina Spirit last time in the prep for this. Considering he had only 1 sprint win (albeit very impressive) it was a solid effort and can be even better today in today's more reasonable early pace scenario. 
Rock Your World is stakes quality and has shown himself to be extremely talented although everything he has done has been on grass. His whole female family including mother and grandmother are stakes winners going long on turf, so that's probably why they started his career on the grass, but interesting that he was Triple Crown nominated so at some point his connections thought he was talented enough early on to try him on the dirt at some point.
 The biggest recipient of a more reasonable early pace setup could be The Great One, who was well beaten by Medina and Dream Shake last time but seems capable of being better than what he showed especially if allowed to be part of the early pace without having to chase Life Is Good.  Finally, Defunded will play the role of the "other Baffert" in here and was an impressive maiden winner against a large and talented field last time out while never really being asked. Will have to stretch out in distance at the same time while facing stakes winners today and probably would not be doing this if Life Is Good had not been injured, but he should be at least considered strongly for use on the ticket.
Original: #2,3,7   Added: #9,10
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Race 9: This race feels really well covered with Charmaine's Mia going for 3 wins in a row and training out of her mind right now. But backing that up is Warren's Showtime who was storming home late last time right behind Mia and is a live longshot that could be argued as the horse to bet.  The comebacking Dogtag for Richard Mandella is a super talented filly that has a high cruising speed and potent kick and can win anywhere from a mile to a mile and quarter and the "other D'Amato" trained filly Raymundo's Secret might be thrown in as she also comes off a layoff and working sharp right now.   Original: #4,3,1     Added: #5
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Race 10: The race centers around Becca Taylor and Pray for My Owner.  We have been pretty strong 5 and 9 throughout and have been spending the most time looking for a backup to those in case Becca's being entered and vet scratched up at Golden Gate in an allowance was any indication she is not 100% fit right now.  Maybe Dylan's Wild Cat or something off the pace or 2nd time starter Fi Fi Pharoah can turn the tables on Pray for My Owner this time but adding will depend on budget or scratches and if we cut something else along the way.   Original:  #5,9   Considering: #6,3,8 
 
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Race 11: This is the race that may make or break the Pick 6 today. It seems very wide open and we started with an original 5 or 6 contenders and ended up cutting a few horses from other races so we could stretch it to 9 candidates on our final ticket.   Original:  #1,2,3,4,6,11  added #9,10,12
 
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Race 12: This will be the "single" that anchors our Pick 6 ticket. Our chosen key today is the The Chosen Vron, who is a really nice Cal-bred and toyed with Cal-bred maidens in his first win then was jumped up to face Baffert's duo of Concert Tour and Freedom Fighter in a graded sprint stakes and was not embarrassed at all even while getting in tight and uncomfortably squeezed on the rail turning for home and getting dirt in his face the first time.  Both Bafferts have now gone on to validate that race.  Freedom Fighter set the pace as the favorite in the Gotham as a 1 turn mile the next time and ran pretty well and Concert Tour stamped himself a legitimate Derby horse cruising to victory in the Rebel at Oaklawn in his next start.  Single: #3
Original Pick 6 Ticket:  $86.40
7,4,8 with 2,3,7,10 with 3,4,1 with 5,9 with 1,2,3,4,6,11 with 3
Final Pick 6 Ticket:  $128
7,8 with 2,3,7,9,10 with 3,4,1,5 with 5,9 with 1,2,3,6,9,10,11,12 with 3

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